Bolsonaro Beats Polls to Secure Second Round of Presidential Race


    Lula, a socialist from the left who was a presidential candidate despite being convicted of a felony, is considered to be the frontrunner for the presidential election. He is widely believed to be a probable winner of the presidential election if he is not in prison. Lula was found guilty and sentenced, following several appeals, to approximately 25 years of prison time for purchasing a luxurious beachfront home that was financed by public money while he was president. The Brazilian Supreme Federal Tribunal (STF), the highest court in Brazil, reversed the verdicts in the last year, allowing Lula to run again for the presidency.

    A fascinating twist occurred on Sunday. The judge who oversaw the convictions for politicians involved with “Operation Car Wash,” the corruption scheme that led to Lula being arrested, has become an elected senator. The renowned judge Sergio Moro will be representing his home state of Parana in the upper chamber of Congress.

    Bolsonaro, who is a hardline conservative candidate, was able to win the 2018 election against socialist candidates Fernando Haddad handily, despite being wounded in a fatal stabbing just a month prior to the election that caused him to suffer long-term, persistent medical issues. Bolsonaro was adamant about fighting corruption, as well as his fervent opposition to the economic lockdown and civil liberties limitations throughout the Chinese coronavirus outbreak the mainstay of his campaign's messages this year.

    Bolsonaro has officially announced his bid for reelection in his home city of Minas Gerais city where he was brutally stabbed in the year 2018.

    When this article was published, 99.51 percent of the precincts in the country had reported, and Lula received 48.31 percent of the vote in the nation. Bolsonaro came in second place with 43.3 percent. Simone Tebet of the centrist Brazilian Democratic Movement (MDB) came in an uninspiring third place with 4.17 percent of the vote.

    In Brazil, when no candidate got more than 50 percent of the votes, the two top vote-getters go into a runoff vote in their own way. Lula and Bolsonaro will square against each other in a run-off election on the night of October 30.

    In the range of just under the threshold of 50 percent, Lula performed largely as the polls in the country expected. Bolsonaro however, significantly outperformed, indicating that the majority of candidates who previously considered third choices eventually ended up voting for Bolsonaro. Polls from last week, as well as all throughout the year, indicated Lula had a huge advantage. A survey released this week by the companies Ipespe and Abrapel found that 46 percent of the eligible Brazilians were in favor of Lula, just a bit lower than the results of Sunday's poll, however only 35 percent of respondents declared support of Bolsonaro.

    The regional breakdowns revealed substantial gains in favor of Bolsonaro in a variety of key urban regions, including those where local governors had imposed coronavirus lockdowns to stop Bolsonaro's raucous protests. In the last week, the polling company IPEC released surveys for every state. IPEC discovered that within Amazonas State, as an instance which is located in the northwest region of the country Lula was predicted to win 43% of voters as opposed to Bolsonaro's 36%. When 99 percent of the votes were being counted, Lula overperformed by six points, however Bolsonaro was able to get 43 percent of the votes, seven points higher than expected.

    For Minas Gerais, the IPEC poll showed 31 percent backing for Bolsonaro and he got 44 percent of votes in the actual results.

    In São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro,Bolsonaro defeated Lula despite an IPEC survey finding Lula ahead. Ipec forecasted that Lula would get 44 percent of votes, compared to Bolsonaro's 33 percent. Bolsonaro received about 48 percent of the vote, compared to Lula's 41 percent.

    For Rio de Janeiro, IPEC discovered Lula having a lead of 41-36 percent; Bolsonaro swept over half the votes, 51 percent in that state, as opposed to the 41 percent for Lula.

    A report in the Brazilian publication O Globo stated that Lula's campaign was expecting to beat Bolsonaro by a more than ten percent advantage, but is now struggling to win with just 50% of that. Lula's office is located in the capital of the Workers Party (PT) snf the paper reported “an atmosphere of apprehension and surprise took over the VIP room, where many allies and campaign coordinators followed the tallies.” Lula himself never left a room that was reserved for his campaign. O Globo noted that Lula's PT was looking at its poor performances on the streets of Rio de Janeiro and Sao Paulo with particular astonishment.

    The Argentine newspaper Infobae said that Lula gave a calm speech declaring his belief that he could be victorious in the runoff at close of month insisting, “the struggle continues until the final victory.” The 76-year old was said to be preparing for an enormous celebration; however, he had reserved blocks along the Avenida Paulista, Sao Paulo's famous thoroughfare, to commemorate his victory.

    In his remarks in the Sunday polls, Bolsonaro said he was hopeful that once the field of candidates being cleared, he will have a better chance of being able to win.

    “We have a second round ahead where now everything is equal … we are going to show the Brazilian people better [what our proposals are], especially the most affected classes [by] … the policy of ‘stay home, we'll save the economy later,'” Bolsonaro declared about coronavirus lockdowns.

    Bolsonaro acknowledged that certain Brazilians are seeking changes, “but things could also change for the worse,” Bolsonaro warned them.

    There was no way that the candidate who came in third, Tebet, nor fourth-place long-time candidate Ciro Gomes would choose to support Lula or Bolsonaro in the Sunday polls. Gomes expressed displeasure at the choices he was given in his comments late on Sunday night.

    “I am extremely concerned with what is happening with Brazil,” Gomes declared. “I have never seen such a complex, challenging situation … I need a few hours to talk to my friends, my party, so that people may find a better way.”

    In total, Gomes and Tebet received approximately 7 percent of the votes, more votes than the difference between Lula and Bolsonaro.



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