England, Scotland, and Wales are a “significant risk” of natural gas shortages, which could trigger the occurrence of a “Gas Supply Emergency” this winter, a letter published by the energy regulatory body Ofgem and published in The Times reveals.
In response to a power station owner worried that they might be fined severely for not producing electricity, because they have been contracted prior to the time when gas supplies stop flowing, Ofgem refers to the National Grid Procedure for Network Gas Supply Emergency document to establish standard procedures and also offers a few reflections from its own. “Due to the war in Ukraine and gas shortages in Europe, there is a significant risk that gas shortages could occur during the winter 2022/23 in Great Britain,” the organization stated, adding that the decision to be made regarding the finer aspects of managing shortages before November 18th.
The issue is not a trivial one, according to the letter that if energy generators are in a position of not being able to obtain gas for prolonged period of time, when the contract is to create electricity and are penalized for this, it could lead to ” potential insolvency of gas-fired generators” -which is to say power stations becoming bankrupt. The BBC reports the owner of the power station SSE as saying via the spokesman that: “Due to circumstances beyond our control, the station would be heavily penalized for not meeting its generation obligations.”
The letter also highlighted other issues to be considered in the event of an “Gas Emergency”. The letter specifically is referring to the “stage 2” plans of the Emergency document, which sets out the steps to take should an energy shortage occur. Beyond the administrative and market-related modifications, The National Grid document outlines a public awareness campaign to help get gas consumption reduced quickly by using “radio or television… relevant social media… Posters and leaflets drops” in addition to starting by stating “An appeal to ‘use as little gas as possible'.”
If the appeals don't produce the desired outcomes, National Grid would then appeal to the people in order to “stop using gas” altogether which is a daunting task during winter, when the majority of British households are heated with natural gas. Perhaps a reflection of the experience of the government in ensuring that people adhere to demand for a lockdown in the coronavirus era the newly revised document states however “It is anticipated that the effect of public appeals would diminish as time passes and that they would need to be repeated and reinforced at frequent intervals and eventually it is possible that the reduction in demand from the appeals would be insufficient”.
However, while this was happening, something much more important was also happening: load-shedding. It is removing the biggest gas users from the system and, as Ofgem states, this will ” likely be large gas-fired power stations which produce electricity to the National Electricity Transmission System”. Britain is able to get nearly half its energy from gas dependent on the season and hence the power outage worries.
The announcement that the “Gas Supply Emergency” is a “significant risk” this winter is just a few weeks before the National Grid told consumers there will be no blackouts this winter.
It's not as if the United Kingdom is the only nation that has been hit by problems. It is true that Britain is one of the least dependent countries in Europe on imports of Russian gas, but the negative effects of this lack of gas in countries like Germany as well as decades of incompetence in the management of energy policies from the UK government have caused the UK to feel just as vulnerable as the rest of Europe.
Berlin police have gone as far as to make emergency plans to deal with disturbances in the event that the power grid fails in winter, leaving people cold. This scenario has been observed all over Europe over the last few months.