Moody’s Chief Economist Pegs the Probability of a U.S. Recession at One in Three

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    On Friday's CNN program The Lead, Moody's Analytics chief economist, Mark Zandi, said that despite the release of the March employment report showing strong jobs gains, the risk of an economy-related “misstep is a high probability” and the chance of the economy receding could be “one in three, at this point.”

    Host Jake Tapper asked about his previous warnings about the likelihood of a downturn in the U.S. economy and whether any information in the March employment report had altered his views.

    Zandi replied, “No. I think the economy is at risk because we have a very strong economy coming into full employment very quickly, we have very high inflation, inflation expectations due to the pandemic and the Russian invasion, and the Fed is raising interest rates. And in that kind of environment, a misstep is a high probability. So, I put recession risks at about one in three, at this point. I will say, though, Jake, the fundamentals of the economy are strong. You know, you don't create a half-million jobs every month for over a year with an economy that's not doing pretty well. So, I think odds are that we will navigate through, but it's going to be a bit tricky.”

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