Polls Have Republicans Ahead by 2 Points


    The poll was announced on Friday, just 46 days prior to the election date, as Republicans are hoping to take back control of Congress. The Rasmussen Reports survey showed that the general GOP candidates are just two points ahead, just one point more than last week's survey, where the Democrats were only one point behind.

    40% of potential U.S. voters said they would vote Republican and 42 percent said they would go for a Democrat. Five percent said they'd prefer a different candidate and nine of them said they were not sure.

    The two-point advantage is just marginally higher than the previous week and only within the error zone of two points. The poll is just two months before the general election, meaning there is a chance of it shifting in either direction before November, but Republicans have been leading by a wide margin on the ballot for the entire year.

    Rasmussen reported that in September of 2018, prior to when Democrats won the House– the Democrats held a three-point edge on the generic congressional ballot, 47 percent to 44 percent. However, as the November 2018 midterm elections drew closer, the gap closed: Republicans were at 46 percent, while Democrats had 45 percent. This is the same as the general election ballot currently showing.

    In this survey, it was found that the Republican party held a slim advantage with independents compared to Democrats. For those who aren't affiliated with either party, 35 percent of respondents said they would choose one of the GOP candidates, whereas only 33 percent indicated they would support the Democrat candidate.

    Furthermore, 22 percent of black voters as well as 42 percent of other minority groups said that they would prefer the Republican candidate should the election be held today. A Democrat candidate could win support from 59 percent of black voters as well as 41 percent from the other minorities.

    Additionally, there is a distinction in the level of voter enthusiasm between parties that is reflected in the majority of Republican voters saying that they would choose the congressional candidate of their party and 85 percent of Democrats say the same.

    The Rasmussen Reports survey was conducted from September 18 through 22. It surveyed approximately 2,500 probable United States voters. The survey was able to provide a two percent margin of error and a 95 percent confidence level.


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