Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball, the Center's political prediction publication, changed the election from “Safe Democratic” to “Likely Democratic.”
The shift towards Smiley is also a sign that the Republican defeated Murray almost by a third during the 3rd quarter of 2018, outstripping her by $6 million in the process to $3.3 million. National Republican Senatorial Committee Chairman Senator. Rick Scott (R-FL) has also placed Smiley's campaign on his list of possible pick-up opportunities.
Smiley is also ng a bit within his margin of error a number of polls, including a September Trafalgar poll showed Murray having only a 2.9 percent advantage.
In the last few days, a Co/Efficient poll found the race as an unofficial tie and Murray ahead by 2.8 points — which was within the poll's 3-point Margin of Error.
Additionally, a SurveyUSA survey showed a high level of support for Smiley among the most popular voter groups.
Murray's lead has not only been reduced by ten points over the last three months, but Smiley is also gaining the support of independents by 16 percentage points as well as Hispanic voters by fifteen points.
Since crime has become an important issue within this Washington campaign, Smiley wins voters who care about crime the most by 45 percent.
Additionally, the Washington Republican also wins in the battle over inflation by 28 percentage points.