Recently, in its 12 race predictions, the Cook political analysts shifted a total of 10 of the races in favor of Republicans and only two in favor of Democrats—with 35 seats across the county considered “toss-ups” or worse for incumbents.
The 12 districts that Cook changed included:
Rep. Greg Stanton (D) in Arizona's Fourth Congressional District changed from “Likely Democrat” to “Leans Democrat.”
Rep. Young Kim (R) in California's Fortieth Congressional District went from “Likely Republican” to “Leans Republican.”
Rep. Mike Levin (D) in California's Forty-Ninth Congressional District went from “Likely Democrat” to “Leans Democrat.”
Rep. Joe Courtney (D) in Connecticut's Second Congressional District changed from “Solid Democrat” to “Likely Democrat.”
Rep. Jahana Hayes (D) in Connecticut's Fifth Congressional District changed from “Likely Democrat” to “Leans Democrat.”
Rep. Lauren Underwood (D) in Illinois' Fourteenth Congressional District changed from “Leans Democrat” to “Likely Democrat.”
Minnesota's First Congressional District is vacant but was previously held by a Republican. The district was changed from “Likely Republican” to “Solid Republican.”
Rep. Dina Titus (D) in Nevada's First Congressional District went from “Likely Democrat” to “Toss-up.”
Oregon's Fifth Congressional District is an open seat currently occupied by a Democrat and changed from “Leans Democrat” to “Toss-up.”
Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (R) in Pennsylvania's First Congressional District went from “Likely Republican” to “Solid Republican.”
Rep. Susan Wild (D) in Pennsylvania's Seventh Congressional District changed from “Toss-up” to “Leans Republican.”
Rep. Scott Perry (R) in Pennsylvania's Tenth District of Congress went from “Likely Republican” to “Solid Republican.”
Cook changed its outlook regarding midterm elections, saying that Republican gains could range from 20 to 35 seats. However, the Republicans only require five seats to regain the House.
The report's prediction acknowledged that a large part of the shift is due to Biden's approval rating being below the mark in many districts he contested during the 2020 presidential election, while the country is facing high inflation rates as well as record-breaking gas prices and a shortage of baby formula, and Biden's Build Back Better legislative agenda is in limbo.
“As the parties navigate primaries and begin polling and placing fall ad buys, Republicans' House advantage looks as robust as ever,” Cook added, noting the fact that voters who are independents are more concerned about the rising cost of living. An earlier CBS News/YouGov poll revealed that only 34 percent of the independents in the United States approve of how Biden is doing his job as president.
This is all happening about six months prior to the midterm elections in November and also while the nation is currently in the primary-election season. Biden's endorsement can have a negative impact on the candidates.
